Practical Regression: Time Series and Autocorrelation

This is the twelfth in a series of scripts that, when combined into a textbook, could be called “Practice Regression.” The notes are intended to supplement the theoretical content of most statistical texts with practical advice based on the author’s nearly three decades of experience combined with more than a century of experience from colleagues who have provided guidance. As the title “Practice Regression” suggests, these notes are a guide for conducting regression in practice. This technical note explains time series data. The note explains the concept of a time trend and how to capture the trend using regression. Most of the note is devoted to the problem of autocorrelation. The note concludes by discussing the use of leads and lags as predictor variables.

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